Utiliza este identificador para citar o vincular este elemento: http://hdl.handle.net/10553/35703
Títulos: Modelling the asymmetric probabilistic delay of aircraft arrival
Autores/as: Pérez-Rodríguez, Jorge V. 
Perez-Sanchez, J. M.
Gómez Déniz, Emilio 
Clasificación UNESCO: 530703 Modelos y teorías del desarrollo económico
531212 Transportes y comunicaciones
Palabras clave: Airports
Asymmetric link
Delay
Logit models
Bayesian estimation
Fecha de publicación: 2017
Revistas: Journal of Air Transport Management 
Resumen: The main purpose of this paper is to present an asymmetric logit probability model to estimate and predict the daily probabilities of delay in aircraft arrivals. The proposed model takes into account statistical regularity, noting that more arrivals are on time than delayed, thus reflecting an asymmetric pattern of behaviour. The data analysed were obtained from the BTS and IATA databases for December 2014, corresponding to delays within the US airspace system for each carrier, measured at various US airports. The model was evaluated by analysing both in sample and out of sample data, for main and control samples. The performance of the proposed asymmetric Bayesian logit model was compared with that of two others: frequentist logit and symmetric Bayesian logit. The main conclusion drawn is that the model we propose obtains the best fit, according to the statistics considered, and identifies a novel delaying factor, namely distance, which is not identified by the other models analysed.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10553/35703
ISSN: 0969-6997
DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2017.03.001
Aparece en la colección:Artículos

Muestra el registro completo del elemento

Citas SCOPUSTM   

2
actualizado el 26-nov-2018

Citas de WEB OF SCIENCETM
Citations

1
actualizado el 27-nov-2018

Vista de página(s)

3
actualizado el 26-nov-2018

Google ScholarTM

Verifica

Altmetric


Los elementos en ULPGC accedaCRIS están protegidos por derechos de autor, con todos los derechos reservados, a menos que se indique lo contrario.